Shh! Don’t Tell Anyone… We’ll Have Herd Immunity Against COVID-19 by April

We know that a small percentage of people who contract COVID-19 perish, which is terrible. We also know that millions of people get the disease and never know they had it.

By sampling the population, researchers can determine how many people are likely to have had the disease but never reported it because their case was either mild and felt like a cold or they had no symptoms at all.

With the virus running through the nation for about a year and vaccinations ramping up, we can now make a pretty good estimate of how many people have already been infected plus those who have been vaccinated to arrive at a total number of people no longer at risk.

The number is bigger than you might think, and the recent trend of cases falling 77% over the past six weeks shows that we’re on the right track.

Testing has been capturing only 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Think about that, more than half the nation has already had the disease.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

Put the two together and we see that 70% of the nation has already had the disease or been vaccinated. We will achieve herd immunity when we get to 80%, which is just 6 weeks or so away.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected.

Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

So if you’re hesitating about making summer travel plans, get over the anxiety and make those reservations. If you don’t, you’re likely to find that someone else has nabbed that hotel room or airplane seat ahead of you.

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Comments (7)


  1. jim Robertson
    Reply

    Absolutely correct, this has been BS, since the begining

    ,

    • Eijebong
      Reply

      Ahem…
      BS? Tell that to the loved ones of 500,000+ people who have ‘died’.
      Obviously, ignorance has no bounds.

  2. Ruth Morris
    Reply

    Specious reasoning.

    • Daniel Less
      Reply

      The Covid 19 virus, or whatever you want to call it, has been a Godsend gift to all the left wing looneys and Socialists out there, as it gives liberals a carte blanche to strip the citizens of their countries of their rights to freedom of speech, movement, work and so on, they are drunk on their power to control other people! Whether they are called Pelosi, Newsome, Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmore and so on ad infinitum. They are in paradise right now, apparently! And it seems to be the same thing all over the world right now, Western European countries, Australia, and other parts of the world. I am amazed that the UN in New York has not yet declared an investigation into the possibility that the Zionists might be behind this epidemic, as everybody knows they were behind the plague during the mid 1400 th Century, (sarcasm)!

  3. Denny Blaine
    Reply

    Ah ah I told you so last March! Covid will disappear as soon as the democrats are in power.

    As soon as biden was put in office the covid numbers started plummeting.

    Now suddenly even without everyone vaccinated we will have herd immunity.

    Just two months ago fauci was saying masks and social distancing was the new norm for years to come.

    Even the father of covid 19 fauci says its all gone by Christmas 2021.

    Here I though viruses did not disappear.

    The whole thing was a democrat planned economy ruiner. Thanks for voting liberal and all that wonderful voter fruad. At least we get to end tge covid pandemic becuase of your actions.

  4. CHRIS GAINES
    Reply

    Hmmm, sounds good on the surface … but you skipped over the people who survive with debilitating health issues for life.
    You sorta glossed over that the vaccines are NOT 100% protection, they merely offer protection from the most severe infection needing hospitalization at about 90% rate.
    We have a long way to go.
    Wash hands, wear mask and keep yourself and others safe.

  5. John Carey
    Reply

    I don’t believe this supposition presented in your article.Your statistical data does not show this to be hard fact evidence. People who are reading this will only get confused by your misrepresentation of the facts. I know it’s a political weapon and has been since Covid’s inception here in the US. So unfortunate for us to even believe any of this. As for DR. Faucci our omnipotent health expert, he too sold off a lot of BS. The only thing thaT I BELIEVE IS THE SOCIAL DISTANCING AND STAYING AWAY FROM CROWDS AND WASHING YOUR HANDS. MASKS AND SHIELDS PURE NONSENSE. FINAL THOUGHT: DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE COVID TESTS WERE WITHOUT ERROR???? DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THAT EVERY DEATH CERTIFICATE WAS DUE TO COVID??? SO MANY PEOPLE WERE PRIMARILY ILL DUE TO OTHER SYMPTOMS, SUCH AS HEART FAILURE, DIABETES, CANCER, AND MANY OTHER DEBILITATING ILLNESSES. HOWEVER, I DO AGREE THAT IF YOU WERE IN CONTACT WITH SOMEONE WHO HAD YOUR MORTALITY RATE JUMPS THROUGH THE ROOF. THE DEMOCRAT’S AND THE MEDIA DID A REAL HATCHET JOB ON AMERICA. WHO CAN YOU TRUST??? HOWEVER, WHILE SMALLER NUMBERS …. STILL IN THE THOUSANDS ARE SHOWING A LESSER POSITIVITY RATE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. JUST WHEN I THOUGHT I WAS DONE HERE…. ASK YOURSELF WHY ARE THE GOVERNORS OF OUR STATES SCREWING UP THE DISTRIBUTION PROCESS???? THINK ABOUT THAT…. THEY WANT FULL CONTROL OF YOUR LIFE AND WILL PERSECUTE AND PERSEVERE UNTIL MAYBE THE END FOR US IS NEAR APPROACHING…. SHAME ON YOU PEOPLE… WHAT DO YOU THINK????

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