Focus Groups in Swing Areas Still Favor Trump… Is It Enough?

National polling shows Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump by double digits in the presidential race. But national numbers don’t mean much. With states like California heavily skewed to Biden, and Alabama skewed to Trump, we can all but ignore wide swaths of the nation and zero in on the battleground states.

One pundit who deals with focus groups has a surprising message: People in key areas still favor Trump, and that could make the difference in the election.

Rich Thau works with focus groups, which by definition are small groups of people and not nationally representative sample groups. Thau points out that focus groups often uncover preference changes before they show up in larger surveys.  He has been working with small groups in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and other swing states that voted for Obama in 2012 and then Trump in 2016 for more than a year and found something very interesting. Trump’s supporters are still with him.

According to Thau:

“They think a businessman is best suited to turn the country around economically.They feel Covid-19 was not Trump’s fault, and he’s doing the best he can to contain it. They conflate the Black Lives Matter protesters with the rioters attacking federal buildings and retail shops.They don’t want historic monuments torn down. And they dismiss defunding the police as ridiculous.”

“These voters tell me they want America finally to be put first; they oppose immigration and trade policies they say give benefits to foreigners at their expense. And they want a non-politician who relentlessly fights back, after witnessing too many office holders fold in the face of special interests.”

That being said, Thau is quick to point out that these voters could easily swing to Biden and can’t be counted on as Trump voters in November, although that seems at odds with their views. If they support the president up through today, it seems unlikely they’d change their mind over the next 100 days.

 

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Comments (5)


  1. Richard Evans
    Reply

    Trump will continue to get support from the racist and uneducated voter but let’s pray that’s not enough

  2. Yvette Dalton
    Reply

    To get the economy up and polls up we need a return to normal. Declare herd immunity and Covid pandemic over. All of the US can still be careful around the elderly and hospitalized people. No mandated vaccines, for Covid, school children, etc… our bodies our business. And we need a law that physicians cannot terminate patients from their care because of refusal for ANY vaccine, nor schools deny ANY child for refusal of vaccines. The CDC is a vaccine business- they need put back in their place, not consulted as to public health mandates of ANY kind. We are supposed to be the land of the free- let’s go back to it. Thank you, Yvette

  3. Richard Elliott
    Reply

    Well since Trumps not a racist that shouldn’t matter and we’re not all uneducated. Maybe you should’t believe everything you read.

    • Linda Abernathy
      Reply

      Amen!

  4. Linda Abernathy
    Reply

    I think the polls are BS anyway. I wonder the reliability of the poll itself and exactly where does this info come from. There are also a lot of Republicans in Democrat areas that simply are afraid to say they are voting for Trump. Especially in the Democrat cities that have little or no police interaction. Do you think I am going to risk my life? The left has gone bizerk! I also don’t believe Biden is leading in undecided votes.

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