There’s an old saying on Wall Street, “Even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from high enough.” Normally people are talking about stocks that are falling and, every once in awhile, turn higher for a day or two. While this doesn’t exactly apply to the Biden campaign (since it is still the front runner), it’s always fun to say that someone did, or didn’t get a dead-cat bounce.
Normally candidates get a bit of a boost after the national convention because their party, well, held a party. Even Hillary Clinton picked up four points after the convention in 2016. But these aren’t normal times, and Biden isn’t a normal candidate. This is the year of the virus, and Joe’s been around so long he’s like the relative that’s always at the reunion, but no one can remember how he’s related.
This might explain why a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that the Biden/Harris ticket, while still running ahead of Trump/Pence, didn’t make any measurable headway after the recently completed Democratic National Convention. Without big crowds chanting and cheering in the arena, viewers at home weren’t sure if the lines deserved applause or eye rolls.
There is another explanation. With fewer undecided voters, there aren’t many votes to pick up. The poll showed only 14% of registered voters didn’t support either candidate, down from 22% during the last election at this time.
Biden is making progress among black voters while Trump is picking up more voters in the suburbs, leaving the overall numbers unchanged.