The recession fears that dominated the markets and the financial press have made their way into the homes of Americans. According to a newly released poll by ABC News/Washington Post:
Trump has slipped by a slight 5 percentage points specifically on his handling of the economy, from 51% approval in midsummer to 46% now. Fewer — 35% — approve of his handling of trade negotiations with China, and 60% are concerned that the trade dispute will raise the price of things they buy.
In another measure, Trump gets far more criticism than credit for his economic stewardship. Americans by nearly a 3-1 margin, 43-16%, say his trade and economic policies have increased rather than decreased the chance of a recession in the next year.
Still, a majority of Americans, 56%, have a positive view of the economy. But this figure is down from 65% in a similar poll given by ABC News/Washington Post last November.
Meanwhile, Robert Shiller sees less than a 50% chance of a recession in 2020. Shiller won the Nobel Prize for economics and predicted the dot-com bust of the early 2000s and warned of last decade’s housing crisis. Shiller said he, “‘wouldn’t be at all surprised’ if a recession begins next year, but he doesn’t have the sense of foreboding he had during the dotcom bubble in 2000.”